Auburn and Duke will be No. 1 and No. 2 in the AP Top 25 poll six consecutive weeks Monday when the latest college basketball rankings refresh. But the revolving door at No. 3 appears poised to once again give us a new team behind the two. With Florida’s mid-week loss at Georgia, the Gators’ stumble should pave the way for Houston — now back-to-back Big 12 title winners — to fill the void and assume its highest ranking of the season.
The Cougars’ rise to No. 3 would be the sixth team in a six-week span to be ranked right behind Auburn and Duke.
Houston’s rise will have been well-earned to boot. After starting the season ranked No. 4 in the AP poll, it opened the season with a 4-3 record — falling to Auburn, Alabama and San Diego State in the opening month. It has gone 21-1 since.
Bracketology: Tennessee joins No. 1 seeds, Alabama falls to a No. 2 after Volunteers’ victory vs. Crimson Tide
Jerry Palm
Bracketology: Tennessee joins No. 1 seeds, Alabama falls to a No. 2 after Volunteers’ victory vs. Crimson Tide
That stretch has powered the Cougars to a second consecutive outright Big 12 title and positioned them to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for a second consecutive year. As you can see below, it has also put them in a place to be ranked No. 3 behind the steady big two of Auburn and Duke.
So that’s how I project it will go Monday.
Below is how I project the AP Top 25 poll to shake out in our latest Tomorrow’s Top 25 Today.
1
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Auburn
Auburn will remain at No. 1 for an eighth consecutive week after clinching the outright SEC title over the weekend with two regular-season games remaining. Last week: No. 1
2
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Duke
Wins over Miami and Florida State this week by 37 and 35 points, respectively, helped Duke add a cushion to its nation-best scoring margin which now is +22.0 on the season. It has won 22 of its last 23 games dating back to Thanksgiving weekend. Last week: No. 2
3
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Houston
Houston improved to 21-1 in its last 22 games with a 73-64 weekend win over Cincinnati after starting the season 4-3. The win clinched the outright Big 12 title for the Cougars for a second consecutive season. Last week: No. 4
4
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Florida
A rare slip-up from Florida this week — an 88-83 road loss to Georgia — will likely cost the Gators a chance to stay at No. 3 this week despite its impressive resume. Their body of work should keep them somewhere in the top five. Last week: No. 3
5
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Tennessee
A 2-0 week — with a narrow road win over LSU and a buzzer-beater over Alabama — should keep the Vols in the top five and could thrust them past their SEC brethren in Florida. Last week: No. 5
6
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St. John’s
I’d expect St. John’s to rise at least one spot to No. 6 this week after clinching the outright Big East title over the weekend. It would be the highest ranking for the Johnnies since the 1990-91 season. Last week: No. 7
7
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Michigan St.
Michigan State moved closer to a Big Ten title after defeating Wisconsin 71-62 inside the Breslin Center on Sunday to extend its winning streak to five games. It has Iowa and Michigan to close out the regular season. Last week: No. 8
8
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Alabama
A 2-3 record over Alabama’s last five games shouldn’t be enough to drop it out of the top 10. It has the second-most wins in Quad 1 opportunities this season with a resume that includes wins over Kentucky (twice), Houston and Illinois. Last week: No. 6
9
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Texas Tech
Texas Tech secured its second-ever win over Kansas inside Allen Fieldhouse this weekend by burying 15 3-pointers in an offensive shootout. Last week: No. 10
10
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Iowa St.
Injury issues have plagued Iowa State of late but with a full roster available Saturday, it buried a good Arizona team to the tune of 84-67. That context explains in part the two losses ISU had to end February to Houston and Oklahoma State. Last week: No. 9
11
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Clemson
The ACC remains Duke’s to lose but Clemson is hot on its trail after a 2-0 week to improve to 16-2 in league play. The Tigers have won 12 of 13. Last week: No. 13
12
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Wisconsin
John Tonje struggled to get going Sunday at Michigan State and the Badgers’ offense as a whole bogged down in the big spot, finishing 5 of 32 from 3-point range. That they were close to the end says a lot about the talent and tenacity of this team. Last week: No. 11
13
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Louisville
Seventeen wins in its last 18 outings has Louisville positioned to end its NCAA Tournament drought and should be enough to get it into the top 15 of the AP poll this week. At 16-2 the Cardinals are just one game off Duke’s lead in the ACC. Last week: No. 19
14
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Maryland
A stunning last-second loss inside the XL Center to red-hot Michigan State spoiled what has been a resurgent month for the Terps. They rallied to win a tough one at Penn State this weekend. Last week: No. 16
15
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Michigan
Michigan’s been playing with fire of late with its last five wins coming by a margin of a single possession. It finally got burned Sunday as Illinois, finally rounding into form after illness and injuries struck it down the last few weeks, took it to the Wolverines in Ann Arbor. Last week: No. 15
16
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Missouri
Missouri is 5-4 since the start of February after taking two losses in its last three outings on the road to Arkansas and Vanderbilt. A 97-93 OT loss to Vandy might cost it a few spots Monday in the poll. Last week: No. 14
17
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Memphis
Memphis survived a close road test Sunday vs. UAB in an 88-81 win to wrap a perfect week, inching closer in the process to an AAC title. The Tigers are 14-2 since the calendar flipped to 2025. Last week: No. 18
18
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Kentucky
Saturday’s bad day turned brutal with a 94-78 loss to No. 1 Auburn coming shortly before news of Jaxson Robinson’s season-ending injury. Wildcats haven’t been healthy most of the season and will now be entering the postseason without one of their best scorers. Last week: No. 17
19
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Purdue
Purdue snapped its four-game losing streak with a 76-66 win Friday night over UCLA. Last week: No. 20
20
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Marquette
Two Big East wins by 30 and 15 points this week got Marquette back on track and may give it a bump up a spot or two in the rankings Monday. Last week: No. 21
21
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Texas A&M
Your guess is as good as mine about how voters handle Texas A&M this week. It has lost four-straight in SEC play and is in jeopardy of falling out of the rankings despite a resume that Jerry Palm projects as a No. 3 seed. Last week: No. 12
22
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Saint Mary’s
Saint Mary’s closed its regular season slate with a 74-64 win over Oregon State this weekend to finish off WCC play at 17-1. Last week: No. 23
23
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Arizona
It’s been a trying couple weeks for Arizona with four losses over its last six games, culminating with a road loss by 17 points to Iowa State on Saturday. That’s its largest margin in defeat since Dec. 31, 2023. Last week: No. 22
24
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BYU
BYU’s winning streak is at six after beating Arizona State and West Virginia this week. It appeared in the poll last week for the first time all season and is poised to rise Monday. Last week: No. 25
25
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Gonzaga
In a season littered with ups and downs there have been far more of the former than the latter of late for Gonzaga. It closed its regular season with big road wins over Santa Clara and San Francisco this week and has won seven of its last eight entering WCC tourney action. Last week: NR